Field of Science

Glimmer of understanding

The primary benefit of self imposed home quarantine is that you have time to think.  So earlier today TPP began thinking about the end game.  Corona virus (Cv) doesn't go away or disappear, so what happens such that someone will say, you've been in quarantine long enough?  You are free to go about your regular life.  So it finally dawns upon my mind slowly, that it's not about if TPP catches this virus, but when he catches it.  No one expects a vaccine very soon.  So what all this is about is to slow down the spread of Cv so the number of sick people, the demand for hospital facilities doesn't out strip supply as in an epidemically spreading disease.  It may allow time to discover a more effective treatment protocal.  If our self-imposed quarantine works well enough, and slows the spread, then it will be "safer" for T(over-70) PP to deal with Cv because medical facilities won't be over-whelmed. Is that about right? 


Joy said...

As I understand the situation, you are correct. The "Novel" part means the human race has never been exposed to this particular virus before so no one has any immunity. . . until they have had it and recovered. Therefore, quarantine for those over a certain age will last until there is a vaccine, currently expected to be in 18 months or so. Fortunately, I am retired and would rather be in my garden than anyplace else as long as nurseries and seed companies can still do mail order.

William M. Connolley said...

> quarantine for those over a certain age will last until there is a vaccine

It will (should) be up to individual choice. At the moment, the thinking appears to be sufficient self-isolation to slow/stop the spread, so that medical services are not overwhelmed (the death rate for the old is x% with good medical treatment, but (much bigger than x)% once ventilators, etc, run out. Italy looks to have got past the "run out" point, and New York is heading that way.

If we get back to a situation where the medical system is no longer saturated, the lockdown will be relaxed, but if there's no vaccine at that point it will be kinda up to individuals what risk they want to take.

The Phytophactor said...

Yes, it may be up to individual choice, but as contagious as this virus is choice may be moot.